The Inevitable Tightening

For most of this campaign cycle, Democrats have had a significant advantage in the so-called "generic ballot." This ballot is a poll question that asks voters which party they would prefer to see in power (usually in the House) without mentioning candidate names. However, two recent polls that asked about the generic ballot found the Democrats' lead diminished dramatically from where it had been earlier in October. But how much does it matter?

For starters, the last time there was a hegemonic shift in Congress, 1994, the Democrats lost a whopping 52 seats, and the last generic ballot showed them up by 5%. This guy takes a statistical validitation approach to declaring his opposition to the use of generic ballots. On the other hand, this guy just thinks there is no such thing as a generic Democrat or Republican. It is part of the conventional wisdom in Washington that Republicans always underperform in the generic ballot because they turn out at higher rates than Democrats. Of course it doesn't help that Republicans do a pretty good job of suppressing Democratic turnout through shady and/or illegal means (see here, here, here, and here, for example; see here for what to do).

But these are the real reasons why I'm feeling pretty good about the Democrats' chances tomorrow despite the tightening of the generic ballot:

• Race by race, we are projected to win a majority (218 or greater) even before toss-up races are factored in.
• Voter enthusiasm has been higher among Democrats, which should mean more Democrats are motivated to get out to the polls. Supposedly Kerry's latest slip is going to reenergize Republicans, but I think it may be counteracted by the Haggard gay sex 'n' meth scandal.
• People always come home at the end. One of the classical debates in political science has been whether voters make their decisions rationally or emotionally. The most likely answer is that there's a little bit of both involved, but the upshot is that by the time of the election, some of those people who were thinking this might be the year they crossed party lines will come home and vote with their own party after all. This can be seen in New Jersey, a solid Democratic state, where once-endangered Senator Bob Menendez has been pulling away.
• The two polls showing diminished leads have proven to be outliers, since other polls have since come out showing the same comfortable leads we were used to.
  

As you're well aware, it all depends on how many people turn out, so make sure you do your part. GET OUT THE VOTE! GO DEMOCRATS!